Dangote Refinery IPO Triggers Dollar Sell-Off as Nigerians Rush to Raise Naira

By Mogaji Wole Arisekola

The much-awaited Dangote Petroleum Refinery Initial Public Offering (IPO) is set to open on September 14, 2026, with 4.1 billion ordinary shares offered at ₦525 per share. The historic exercise is expected to raise approximately ₦2.15 trillion, equivalent to about $1.6 billion.

As the opening date draws nearer, the Nigerian investment market is already witnessing serious activity. From Lagos to Abuja, Port Harcourt to Kano, investors are running from pillar to post to raise enough money to participate in what could become Africa’s biggest public share offering.

Nobody wants to hear the story without taking part in it.

Many Nigerians believe that the Dangote Refinery is not just another company coming to the stock market. They see it as a rare opportunity to own a small part of one of Africa’s biggest industrial projects. Since the refinery began operations, it has become a major force in Nigeria’s petroleum industry and a source of pride to millions of Nigerians.

The rush for the shares is now reportedly affecting the foreign-exchange market. Some Nigerians who have kept United States dollars in their domiciliary accounts are withdrawing and converting the money into naira so that they can buy the shares.

Even those who normally hold dollars as protection against the weakness of the naira are beginning to reason differently. To them, there is no point keeping dollars inside an account when a major investment opportunity is knocking at the door.

This newspaper spoke with some bureau-de-change operators in Abuja, who confirmed that more customers are now bringing dollars to exchange for naira. According to them, the usual heavy demand for dollars has reduced, while the supply of the American currency has increased.

One of the operators said: “People are now coming to change dollars to naira. Before, everybody was looking for dollars, but the story is changing. We are currently buying one dollar for about ₦1,370. If this pressure continues as the Dangote Refinery offer approaches, the dollar may fall further.”

This development is a simple matter of demand and supply. When too many people are chasing dollars with limited naira, the dollar becomes more expensive. But when more people begin to sell their dollars in exchange for naira, the American currency comes under pressure.

However, Nigerians must not carry excitement on their heads. The exchange rate is influenced by many factors, including oil earnings, foreign reserves, imports, government policies and market speculation. The Dangote IPO alone cannot determine the long-term value of the naira.

Predictions that the dollar could fall to an average of ₦1,000 should therefore be treated as market expectations, not as a guaranteed outcome.

Nevertheless, one thing is becoming clear: the Dangote Refinery IPO has created unusual excitement across the country. Nigerians are bringing money out from different corners because everybody wants a piece of the cake.

For once, dollars are being sold not mainly to pay school fees abroad, import luxury goods or fund foreign holidays, but to invest in a massive Nigerian enterprise.

If this momentum continues, the Dangote Refinery shares may not only make history on the Nigerian Exchange; they may also give the naira some breathing space in the foreign-exchange market.

Mogaji Wole Arisekola writes from Ibadan.