A powerful climate phenomenon is gathering strength over the Pacific Ocean, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that a very strong El Niño could reshape weather patterns across much of the world and intensify the risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding well into 2027.In its latest global climate update released Thursday, the WMO said El Niño is now firmly established and expected to strengthen further in the coming months, with forecasts indicating an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027.
The warning is attracting international attention because El Niño is not confined to the region where it develops. Its influence can extend thousands of kilometres, altering atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall patterns and changing temperatures across different parts of the planet.
Scientists are particularly concerned because the developing phenomenon is emerging against a backdrop of exceptionally warm global oceans and already elevated temperatures, creating conditions capable of amplifying weather extremes.
A GLOBAL WEATHER WILD CARD
According to the WMO, forecasts for September to November 2026 point to above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, while rainfall patterns are expected to show a pronounced response to the strengthening Pacific El Niño.
The organisation’s seasonal climate outlook projects that the average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region could reach about 3.6°C during the September-November period, with the strengthening trend expected to peak around November and December.
Such figures matter because the warmer the tropical Pacific becomes, the greater the potential for El Niño to influence atmospheric circulation far beyond the Pacific itself.
However, the WMO cautioned that a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean identical consequences everywhere, since its effects vary according to geography, season and the interaction of other climate systems.
One of those systems is the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is also expected to enter a positive phase, potentially reinforcing or modifying El Niño’s effects in parts of Africa, Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
AFRICA NOT OUT OF THE DANGER ZONE
For Africa, the warning carries particular significance because changes in rainfall and temperature can quickly become economic and humanitarian problems in communities heavily dependent on agriculture.
Farmers already confronting unpredictable weather could face additional uncertainty over planting seasons, rainfall distribution and crop yields, while excessive rainfall in some areas could increase flooding and damage infrastructure.
Conversely, regions experiencing reduced rainfall could face worsening water shortages, declining agricultural productivity and increased pressure on food supplies.
The WMO’s earlier seasonal outlook had already identified contrasting rainfall signals across Africa, including increased chances of wetter-than-normal conditions around parts of the northern Gulf of Guinea and drier-than-normal conditions toward the Greater Horn of Africa.
That geographical contrast underlines one of the biggest challenges posed by El Niño: the same climate phenomenon can bring destructive floods to one region while worsening drought somewhere else.
‘NEARLY 100 PER CENT’ CERTAINTY
What has particularly startled climate watchers is the confidence attached to the latest forecast.
The WMO described the probability of El Niño continuing through February 2027 as nearly 100 per cent, saying the unusually high confidence reflects strong agreement among global forecasting systems and mutually reinforcing oceanic and atmospheric signals.
The organisation said this is the first time its El Niño update has expressed such a degree of certainty about persistence into the following year.
Rather than waiting for disasters to unfold, meteorological authorities are therefore urging governments, humanitarian organisations and climate-sensitive sectors to use the warning window to prepare.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is one phase of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern capable of influencing weather around the globe.
What makes the 2026 event especially significant is the combination of its projected strength with a planet already experiencing unusually warm conditions.
The WMO has consequently called for stronger early-warning systems and preparedness measures, particularly among governments and communities vulnerable to extreme weather.
For millions of people, the significance of the warning may ultimately be felt not in scientific charts but in the price of food, availability of water, intensity of heat, frequency of floods and reliability of the next harvest.
The message from the world’s leading meteorological authority is therefore clear: El Niño is no longer merely a Pacific Ocean story. It is a global warning—and 2027 could begin under its shadow.
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