Nigeria’s opposition political camp appears to be entering one of its most crucial phases ahead of the 2027 general elections, with a series of meetings involving influential political figures raising fresh questions about a possible alliance capable of challenging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
From Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi and former Osun State Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, prominent opposition figures have increasingly been involved in consultations over how to build a stronger political platform ahead of 2027.
The discussions gained significant attention following the opposition summit held in Ibadan on April 25, where Makinde hosted political leaders and Obasanjo chaired the gathering.
The discussions gained significant attention following the opposition summit held in Ibadan on April 25, where Makinde hosted political leaders and Obasanjo chaired the gathering.
The meeting brought together several opposition politicians and produced the Ibadan Declaration, which called for opposition parties to work towards a united front and ultimately field a single presidential candidate against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
That declaration has since become one of the most important developments in the opposition’s preparations for 2027, although subsequent events have exposed the enormous difficulty of translating the agreement into a functional political alliance.
Makinde’s position is particularly significant. The Oyo governor, who has now emerged as the presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (PM), is not a newcomer to opposition negotiations.
That declaration has since become one of the most important developments in the opposition’s preparations for 2027, although subsequent events have exposed the enormous difficulty of translating the agreement into a functional political alliance.
Makinde’s position is particularly significant. The Oyo governor, who has now emerged as the presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (PM), is not a newcomer to opposition negotiations.
He was one of the five governors who formed the powerful G5 bloc within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before the 2023 election, alongside former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, former Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom, former Abia State Governor Okezie Ikpeazu and former Enugu State Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi.
G5’s rebellion against Atiku’s presidential campaign exposed the depth of the crisis within the PDP at the time.
G5’s rebellion against Atiku’s presidential campaign exposed the depth of the crisis within the PDP at the time.
Although the governors succeeded in denying Atiku the full support of the PDP structure, their alliance eventually lost momentum and failed to evolve into a lasting political platform.
That experience remains an important warning for the current opposition manoeuvring because the politicians now discussing a broader alliance have different ambitions, political interests and constituencies.
The proposed coalition is also far more complicated than the former G5 arrangement. Atiku has emerged as the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, while Obi has pursued his presidential ambition under the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
The proposed coalition is also far more complicated than the former G5 arrangement. Atiku has emerged as the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, while Obi has pursued his presidential ambition under the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
Makinde is running under the APM, while Kwankwaso remains another influential opposition figure with a strong political base in northern Nigeria.
The fundamental problem is therefore obvious: virtually every major opposition bloc has a presidential ambition, while the proposed coalition requires most of those ambitions to be sacrificed in favour of one candidate.
That challenge became more apparent after Obi and Kwankwaso pulled away from the ADC-led arrangement, raising fresh doubts about whether the opposition can actually agree on a common platform.
The fundamental problem is therefore obvious: virtually every major opposition bloc has a presidential ambition, while the proposed coalition requires most of those ambitions to be sacrificed in favour of one candidate.
That challenge became more apparent after Obi and Kwankwaso pulled away from the ADC-led arrangement, raising fresh doubts about whether the opposition can actually agree on a common platform.
The development was particularly significant because Obi’s political movement and Kwankwaso’s influence in the North represent two important components of any realistic anti-APC coalition.
Yet the coalition talks cannot be dismissed simply because of the disagreements that have emerged.
The 2023 presidential election showed the enormous potential of a united opposition. Tinubu won with 8.79 million votes, while Atiku polled about 6.98 million and Obi secured more than 6.10 million votes. Kwankwaso also recorded almost 1.5 million votes.
Yet the coalition talks cannot be dismissed simply because of the disagreements that have emerged.
The 2023 presidential election showed the enormous potential of a united opposition. Tinubu won with 8.79 million votes, while Atiku polled about 6.98 million and Obi secured more than 6.10 million votes. Kwankwaso also recorded almost 1.5 million votes.
Although those figures cannot simply be added together because voters do not automatically transfer their allegiance from one candidate to another, they demonstrate the scale of the opposition vote and the possibility of a different outcome if a credible coalition succeeds in bringing substantial portions of those constituencies together.
This is where the meetings involving Obasanjo, Makinde, Oyinlola and Fayemi assume greater political significance.
Their interactions should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that a final presidential arrangement has been reached.
This is where the meetings involving Obasanjo, Makinde, Oyinlola and Fayemi assume greater political significance.
Their interactions should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that a final presidential arrangement has been reached.
However, they reflect the continuing consultations among political actors who understand that fragmentation could once again work in favour of the incumbent.
Obasanjo’s involvement is particularly noteworthy because of his long political experience and extensive relationships across the country.
Obasanjo’s involvement is particularly noteworthy because of his long political experience and extensive relationships across the country.
Oyinlola, a former governor of Osun State and former military administrator, also has a history of involvement in efforts to build alternative political platforms.
Fayemi, meanwhile, has maintained relationships across political divides and remains one of the influential figures associated with Nigeria’s progressive political tradition.
Makinde’s participation gives the emerging discussions another important dimension because of his position in the South-West.
Makinde’s participation gives the emerging discussions another important dimension because of his position in the South-West.
He is one of the few opposition governors with a strong electoral base and an established political structure, while his relationship with leaders across different political tendencies gives him access to conversations that extend beyond his own party.
For Tinubu, the emergence of such a broad opposition conversation presents a potential threat, but it would be premature to conclude that the President is already in electoral trouble.
The APC remains a powerful political organisation with control of the federal government and a growing number of governors and political leaders who have either defected to the ruling party or aligned themselves with it.
For Tinubu, the emergence of such a broad opposition conversation presents a potential threat, but it would be premature to conclude that the President is already in electoral trouble.
The APC remains a powerful political organisation with control of the federal government and a growing number of governors and political leaders who have either defected to the ruling party or aligned themselves with it.
Tinubu also has the advantage of incumbency, access to a national political structure and the ability to campaign on the policies and achievements of his administration.
The opposition, on the other hand, must overcome its own internal weaknesses before it can turn its numerical strength into an electoral advantage.
A successful coalition will require more than meetings and declarations. It will require agreement on the presidential candidate, the vice-presidential candidate, the structure of the new political platform, allocation of positions, campaign financing, legislative candidates and the sharing of political influence after the election.
Most importantly, the major presidential contenders must convince their supporters that defeating the APC is more important than their individual ambitions.
That may prove to be the hardest part.
The history of the opposition since 2015 is filled with alliances that appeared powerful until the question of leadership arose.
The opposition, on the other hand, must overcome its own internal weaknesses before it can turn its numerical strength into an electoral advantage.
A successful coalition will require more than meetings and declarations. It will require agreement on the presidential candidate, the vice-presidential candidate, the structure of the new political platform, allocation of positions, campaign financing, legislative candidates and the sharing of political influence after the election.
Most importantly, the major presidential contenders must convince their supporters that defeating the APC is more important than their individual ambitions.
That may prove to be the hardest part.
The history of the opposition since 2015 is filled with alliances that appeared powerful until the question of leadership arose.
The APC itself demonstrated in 2015 that opposition parties can overcome their differences when they successfully combine their structures and agree on a common candidate. The merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change, All Nigeria Peoples Party and a faction of the PDP produced the political force that defeated an incumbent president.
The current opposition is attempting to recreate that political magic, but under very different circumstances.
Atiku brings experience and a substantial northern political network. Obi brings a strong movement that demonstrated remarkable electoral strength in 2023, particularly among younger voters and in the South-East and parts of the South-South. Kwankwaso retains significant influence in Kano and sections of the North, while Makinde provides an important South-West base and the political weight of a sitting governor.
If those blocs eventually agree on one presidential candidate, the 2027 election could become one of the most competitive presidential contests in Nigeria’s recent history.
If they fail, the consequences could be equally significant.
Multiple opposition candidates could once again divide the anti-APC vote, allowing Tinubu to benefit from the fragmentation.
The current opposition is attempting to recreate that political magic, but under very different circumstances.
Atiku brings experience and a substantial northern political network. Obi brings a strong movement that demonstrated remarkable electoral strength in 2023, particularly among younger voters and in the South-East and parts of the South-South. Kwankwaso retains significant influence in Kano and sections of the North, while Makinde provides an important South-West base and the political weight of a sitting governor.
If those blocs eventually agree on one presidential candidate, the 2027 election could become one of the most competitive presidential contests in Nigeria’s recent history.
If they fail, the consequences could be equally significant.
Multiple opposition candidates could once again divide the anti-APC vote, allowing Tinubu to benefit from the fragmentation.
The President would then face a collection of individual challengers rather than one formidable national alternative.
That is why the real battle may not yet be between Tinubu and the opposition. It may be within the opposition itself.
The coming months will determine whether the meetings involving Makinde, Obasanjo, Oyinlola, Fayemi, and possibly Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso and other political actors will produce a genuine political realignment or become another chapter in Nigeria’s long history of failed opposition alliances.
For now, one thing is clear: the opposition has recognised that it cannot afford another fragmented presidential contest.
What remains uncertain is whether its leading figures are prepared to surrender personal ambition for a common candidate.
If they do, Tinubu could face the most formidable challenge of his political career in 2027.
If they do not, the President may have the opposition itself to thank for making his path to a second term considerably easier.
-Dare Adeniran
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