Several factors that played out before the 2019 governorship election combined to produce a decisive victory for Seyi Makinde of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Makinde won 28 of Oyo State’s 33 local government areas, while the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate at the time, Adebayo Adelabu, won five local governments despite the backing of the federal government and the strength of the ruling party.
Makinde polled 515,621 votes to defeat Adelabu, who secured 357,982 votes. The 157,639-vote margin was widely regarded as one of the most significant victories recorded in an Oyo State governorship election.
How Ajimobi’s Second Term Shaped the 2019 Contest
Before the 2019 election, the late former governor Abiola Ajimobi had already made history by becoming the first governor of Oyo State to win a second consecutive term.
After completing his first term, Ajimobi contested the 2015 governorship election against two former governors, Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala, and emerged victorious.
His re-election broke what had become a long-standing political jinx in the state and earned him the popular nickname, “Koseleri” — meaning “It has not happened before.”
However, while the achievement strengthened Ajimobi’s political standing, critics argued that his second term was accompanied by growing dissatisfaction among sections of the population.
Some of his critics accused the administration of becoming less responsive to pensioners, traditional rulers, workers and other interest groups.
One of the criticisms centred on pension and gratuity arrears. In 2018, the Oyo State chapter of the Nigeria Union of Pensioners instituted legal action against Ajimobi and others over alleged unpaid pensions and gratuities reportedly amounting to N42.3 billion.
The pension issue became one of the major talking points during the build-up to the 2019 election.
From Political Strength to Internal Challenges
Ajimobi had enjoyed considerable confidence within the national leadership of the APC and was at one point entrusted with reconciliation assignments aimed at resolving crises within the party in other states.
However, critics argued that the same level of reconciliation was not achieved within the Oyo APC, where disagreements among party members and political interests continued to grow.
As the 2019 election approached, the administration also faced opposition from several influential groups and institutions.
Among those who became increasingly critical of the government were sections of the civil service, traders, artisans and business operators.
The administration’s relationship with some media organisations also became contentious, including its widely reported disagreement with Fresh FM, one of Ibadan’s prominent radio stations.
The traditional institution was also drawn into the political conversation following the administration’s strained relationship with the late Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Saliu Adetunji, Aje Ogungunniso I.
LAUTECH Crisis and Students’ Protests
Education was another major area of contention.
Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), jointly owned by Oyo and Osun states at the time, experienced prolonged disruption over funding difficulties.
The crisis also affected other state-owned tertiary institutions, including colleges of education and polytechnics.
In 2016, secondary school students in Oyo State protested against an education policy introduced by the Ajimobi administration which critics interpreted as part of a move towards greater private participation in school management.
The protest generated considerable public attention, with some demonstrators reportedly vandalising a billboard bearing the image of the governor.
The following year, while LAUTECH remained closed amid the funding crisis, a video showing Ajimobi addressing protesting students circulated widely on social media.
His response to the students generated further controversy and contributed to the popularity of the phrase “constituted authority,” which subsequently became a street expression associated with the episode.
Makinde’s Opportunity
Many of the grievances that emerged during the final years of the Ajimobi administration became part of the political narrative ahead of the 2019 election.
Makinde’s campaign and the broader opposition movement were able to capitalise on some of those grievances, helping the PDP secure a decisive victory over the APC.
Since assuming office, Makinde has also sought to distinguish his administration from some of the challenges associated with the previous government.
One example is the long-running LAUTECH ownership dispute. During Makinde’s tenure, Oyo State reached an agreement with Osun State that resulted in the institution becoming wholly owned by Oyo State.
His administration has also highlighted its efforts to address pension and gratuity obligations, among other areas of governance.
These developments have contributed to the narrative among Makinde’s supporters that his administration has delivered on some of the issues that helped shape the 2019 election.
But Can 2023 Be Like 2019?
Looking ahead to the 2023 governorship election from the perspective of the time, Makinde appeared to enjoy considerable goodwill among sections of the electorate.
His public engagements, interaction with residents and visible political presence across the state had helped him establish what supporters described as a strong grassroots connection.
On the strength of those factors alone, it might have been tempting to conclude that Makinde was on course for another comfortable victory.
But elections are rarely determined by one factor.
The major threat facing the governor was the possibility of a coalition among opposition forces.
The question was whether the opposition could overcome its own differences and reproduce the kind of political realignment that helped Makinde emerge victorious in 2019.
More importantly, could the opposition bring together politicians, party structures and interest groups that had previously worked against one another?
The Unanswered Question
While Makinde appeared to have maintained a strong relationship with a significant section of the electorate, another question remained largely unanswered: had he been able to maintain the same level of confidence among his political associates, party leaders, grassroots mobilisers and other influential interests across the state?
That question was crucial because the 2023 contest was unlikely to be determined by the governor’s popularity alone.
The ability of the opposition to form a credible coalition, and the capacity of the incumbent to keep his political structure united, were likely to play major roles in determining the outcome.
Whether Makinde could withstand the emerging coalition threat was therefore a question that demanded closer attention.
To be continued in Part III.
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